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The Arab world and its neighbors are caught in a trap of violence. Wars in Libya, Syria, Yemen and Iraq, along with looting by groups like the Islamic State, are destroying the economic ties needed to ensure long-term political stability. Indeed, by redrawing the region's economic boundaries, the recent violence has created a real trade shock whose true scale and significance have been overlooked.
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While the proliferation of armed groups makes borders more porous to conflict, it also strengthens them against trade. The fallout is most felt in the Levant, where improved transport and trade reforms have strengthened economic ties between Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria.
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Trade between these countries was higher on average than with its Arab counterparts, but it has faltered as violence has increased. Syria's border closures, in particular, have disrupted regional trade by cutting off a key route linking the wider Levant, the Gulf states and Turkey. Among the invisible losses are Lebanese apple growers who survive on exports. Since 2011, Lebanon has lost almost all of its export markets to Jordan, Iraq and the Persian Gulf.
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China appears determined to use force in Taiwan, with Russia's experience in Ukraine only affecting Beijing's calculations of when and how, rather than invading, the head of the Central Intelligence Agency has warned.
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CIA Director William Burns said Wednesday that China must have seen that "you don't achieve quick and decisive victories with overwhelming force" in Ukraine.
China claims the self-governing territory of Taiwan, where the Nationalists established a government after losing power to the Communists in the country's civil war in 1948, as part of its territory and has not ruled out using force to take control of the island.
Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum, Burns said China was "volatile" because of Russia's five-month war in Ukraine, which he described as "a strategic obstacle" for President Vladimir Putin as he hopes to oust government in Kiev. within a week.
"In our view, this is more about whether the Chinese leadership chooses a few years to use force to govern Taiwan, but less about how and when they will do it," Burns said.
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"I suspect the lesson learned from the Chinese leadership and military is that if you want to think about this in the future, you're going to have to build a lot of power," he said.
Burns' comments came amid continued tensions between Washington and Beijing over a range of issues, including trade and Taiwan, after US President Joe Biden announced plans for talks with President Xi Jinping - the first between the two leaders in four months.
"I think I'll be talking to President Xi in the next 10 days," Biden told reporters on his way back from Massachusetts.
The US calls China its main strategic rival and says high-level engagement is essential to keep the strained relationship stable and prevent it from accidentally escalating into conflict.
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News that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi plans to visit Taiwan next month and that the USS Benfold destroyer was transiting the Taiwan Strait sparked anger in Beijing earlier this week.
Beijing has said it will respond with "strong measures" if Pelosi's visit goes ahead, and on Wednesday Biden cast doubt on whether that would continue.
"I think the military right now thinks it's not a good idea, but I don't know what the situation is," Biden said.
Burns dismissed speculation that Xi could make a move on Taiwan after a key Communist Party meeting later this year, but said the stakes "seem to be the highest of the decade to us."
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China's ambassador to the United States, Qin Gang, told Burns at a forum in Colorado's Rocky Mountains that Beijing still preferred "peaceful reunification," but he accused the United States of supporting "independence" forces in Taiwan.
Since President Tsai Ing-wen, who asserted the island's special identity, was first elected president in 2016, Beijing has stepped up its activities, including regular incursions into Taiwan's aerial identification zone.
Although Qin said the biggest consensus between China and the US was "no conflict and no war", he accused Washington of "loosening and obfuscating" Beijing's official recognition policy.
"Only by strictly adhering to the 'One China' policy, only by joining hands to limit and oppose Taiwan's independence, can we achieve peaceful reunification," he said.
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Washington established official relations with Beijing in 1979 and at the same time pledged to help Taiwan defend itself. At the time, Taipei claimed to represent all of China, but democratization no longer made that claim.
Last month, the State Department updated its fact sheet on Taiwan to reiterate the line that it does not support the island's formal independence. Since 2001, the international community has invested billions of dollars in support of Afghanistan. 49 countries joined the military coalition led by the United States, the most powerful military in the world. Several others provided assistance and development.
But why is Afghanistan still in turmoil after 14 years of blood and treasure? Because his success is nobody's priority.
In many ways, Afghanistan resembles the common tragedy in South Asia and Central Asia. Each country in the region tries to maximize its own interests, to the detriment of the best interests of the entire region. If this perverse logic does not change, everyone will be worse off, especially the Afghans.
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The tragedy of the commons is the exploitation of a common resource. Unfortunately, this is how many regional actors see Afghanistan. Some, notably Pakistan, fear a stable and hostile Afghanistan. They prefer to become client states to undermine their rivals. Since the latter is unlikely and the former is threatening, they maximize their personal interests by fomenting instability by supporting warring factions and insurgents.
For international powers, Afghanistan is either a distraction or a vehicle for larger interests. Some are attracted to resource wealth and nurture kleptocracy to exploit it. Others see Afghanistan as a way to distract and weaken the US and NATO.
The United States wanted to finish and leave by early 2001. The lack of attention helped prolong the war. Realizing the mistake, the Americans rose in 2009, then quickly tired. Regional policy has been schizophrenic and ineffective.
Last year, the United States brokered a deal for Afghanistan's government of national unity. The new governance arrangement kept Afghanistan's election crisis off the front pages of Western newspapers, but in reality created a government too divided to reform and govern. America moves on: Unwilling to address the problems of predatory kleptocracy, foreign sanctuary, and regional malign activity, he has unwittingly encouraged all three.
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For their part, the Afghan government and most of the elite are more interested in self-enrichment than the country's success. As the country teeters dangerously close to the brink, elites squabble over dwindling spoils. Even if the government is able to present policies for reform, the parliament is too corrupt to pass laws. The government has never developed a strategy for war; he is involved in the conflict, he is not winning, but he cannot confirm the defense minister either. Political infighting and unmet demands for bribes suffocated each candidate. The elites are happy to place all the blame on Pakistan.
The Taliban may be the only party that favors victory, even if it is not for the good of the country. He maintains his illusion that military victory is possible. The death of Mullah Muhammad Omar created a major succession crisis. The main beneficiaries of the ongoing conflict are arms traffickers and groups such as the Islamic State, also known as Daesh, in addition to various elites. By failing to recognize the possibilities of the peace process and the threat of civil war, the Taliban are sowing the seeds of their own destruction.
This is the classic prisoners' dilemma. Everyone recognizes the benefit of cooperating toward a peaceful outcome, but no one trusts others enough to take risks to make it happen. Each side is destroying the country by maximizing their personal interests.
Disaster in Afghanistan, or a repeat of its recent disastrous history, is not yet imminent. How to prevent it:
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1. Afghanistan should be declared as a neutral state reinforced by the Resolution of the UN Security Council (UNSC). Make it clear that Afghanistan is nobody's playground and avoid suspicions that Afghanistan is playing double games with all regional rivalries.
2. To
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